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List of 19 natural experiments.
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21 Naturalistic Observation Examples
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Naturalistic observation is a data collection method that involves observing behavior as it occurs in a natural environment. It is a common methodology in psychology and anthropology .
The main idea is to see how people or animals act in their natural habitat, as opposed to a research laboratory. This will give researchers insights into a particular phenomenon under study that could not be obtained in the artificial setting of a lab. Sometimes, we also call this observational research .
Naturalistic Observation Examples
- Observing chimpanzees in the wild and recording their social interactions – Jane Goodall
- Observing children playing at different ages and examining their stages of cognitive development – Jean Piaget
- Observing how students interact in the workplace to get insights into classroom layout and teaching styles – This Study
- Observing an indigenous group of cattle herders in East Africa to see how they educate their youth – George J. Klima
- Observing how working-class high school students are taught differently to middle-class students – Paul Willis, Learning to Labour
- Observing a left-wing cooperative attempting to run their business collaboratively and democratically – Avi Lewis, The Take
- Observing the relationship between mothers and their children in their home to determine a taxonomy of attachment styles – Mary Ainsworth
- Following emergency room staff to see how their professional culture is developed and operates under pressure – Person et al.
- Placing cameras in wombat burrows to observe how they live, mate, and survive – Swinbourne et al.
- Observing a busy intersection to see how traffic jams begin and explore how changing the traffic light cadence can decrease congestion
- An experienced teacher sitting-in on a trainee teacher to observe them teaching
Famous Examples
1. jane goodall’s research.
Dr. Valerie Jane Morris-Goodall is one of the most famous scientists in history. Her research on chimpanzees in Kenya and work in conservation are well-known throughout the world.
Her primary research method was naturalistic observation. She entered the natural habitat of the subject of her study, sat down with pen and paper, and began taking detailed notes of her observations. Those notes were later transcribed into numerous research papers for other scientists to learn from.
Her research produced many groundbreaking insights into animal behavior, including the fact that chimpanzees use tools, such as twigs and straw to “fish” for termites. This was an incredible discover, which led to the now famous quote by Louis Leakey, “we must now redefine tool, redefine man, or accept chimps as humans.”
To learn about other fascinating uses of naturalistic observation, including links to numerous research tools like live cams at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, check-out this amazing resource page from National Geographic .
2. Linguistic Development of Children
Language development is a fascinating phenomenon. Human beings go from not being able to utter a single word, to having a vocabulary existing of thousands of words by the age of 5.
A typical study involves researchers training their research team on how to conduct objective observations of parental interactions with their children. The observers will then go to a family’s home, sit quietly in a corner of a room, and take detailed notes.
The data can include recording the number of interactions, number of words directed at the child, and types of words (e.g., expressive or factual). After all the data is collected, it is analyzed using statistical software and patterns of parental behavior that are linked to language development can be discovered.
Although naturalistic observation can give us valuable insights into the role of parental interactions in child development, this type of research is quite difficult to carry-out.
3. Observing Workplaces to Study Ergonomics
Ergonomics is the study of how human beings function in the environment, such as a work setting, or how they interact with various products or machine interfaces. This branch of study is sometimes referred to as “human factors.”
The goal is to improve people’s experience with the object of study to make it more efficient, effective, or pleasant.
The basic procedure is for a trained professional to observe people using the equipment, or product, while taking detailed notes on the user’s experience. This is often followed-up with a one-on-one interview, a survey, or focus group .
This type of naturalistic observation is so widely used today that there probably is not a single electronic gadget on the market that has not gone through some version of ergonomic analysis.
4. Satellite Images of Walmart
As reported by NPR , some stock market analysts use naturalistic observation of Walmart parking lots to earn huge profits. With the purchase of satellite images of selected Walmart parking lots, an analyst can count the number of cars and estimate how well business is going.
From other sources, the analyst knows the average amount of money spent by customers, broken down by time of day and geographic location. When combining that information with the satellite images, they start to build a detailed picture of the company’s sales.
Later, they can compare their estimates with the actual numbers released by the company during their quarterly reports. That will give the analyst an opportunity to refine how they collect their data and lead to more accurate estimates in the future.
This is a type of naturalistic observation that results in huge profits for companies that know how to use the data. For other examples, click here .
5. Spying on Farms
Although naturalistic observation is usually used when studying human or animal behavior, it can also be used to observe plant growth.
Believe it or not, big money can be made in the futures markets by predicting the price of various agricultural commodities.
Some companies use infrared imaging software to observe how well various crops are developing all over the world, such as corn and wheat. The images not only track the number of acres being planted, but can also assess how well they are growing by measuring the amount of chlorophyll in the plants.
By tracking growth over time, analysts can identify any changes that may significantly affect supply and demand in the future. Having that edge can lead to massive profits.
6. Observing Group Dynamics During Office Meetings
Understanding the dynamics of how work teams make decisions is a well-researched area in Industrial Psychology. This involves naturalistic observations of team interactions at work.
Bad decisions can lead to disastrous results. On the other hand, making wise decisions regarding strategic planning or product selection can generate tremendous profits.
One insight revealed through naturalistic observation research is that various members of a work-team play different roles.
For example, some play the role of task-master. They like to keep the team focused on objectives and meeting deadlines. While others serve to help the team get along. They’re called harmonizers and they try to defuse conflicts.
The research typically involves trained observers sitting to the side or watching the team conduct their meetings through CCTV. The observers take notes on who says what to whom, and the nature of those comments.
By examining the observations later, it is possible to identify weaknesses in how decisions are made and suggest ways to improve the decision-making process .
7. Observing Screentime vs Quality of Romantic Relationships
Social scientists have expressed concern that screentime, or social media use, may impact the quality of romantic relationships ( Quiroz & Mickelson, 2021). But one researcher took this to a new level by watching romantic couples’ phone usage!
Unfortunately, a lot of research in this area relies on surveys. One survey will assess frequency of social media use and another survey will assess quality of the current romantic relationship.
Naturalist observation could provide more realistic information. For example, two trained observers could be placed at various public places, such as a farmer’s market.
One observer tracks the touching behavior of couples, an acceptable indicator of romantic involvement (Gulledge et al., 2003), while the other tracks screentime.
Once all the data is collected, a simple analysis comparing the rate of touching to screentime could reveal if there is an association, or not.
Of course, to fully answer any question requires multiple studies using different methods. Combined, a clearer understanding of the phenomenon under study gradually (i.e., years) emerges.
8. Naturalistic Observation of Infant Attachment
Mary Ainsworth is well-known for her strange situations test to assess attachment quality. However, before developing this test, she conducted naturalistic observations of infant/caregiver behavior in Uganda for 2 years starting in 1954, after a 4-year collaboration with John Bowlby.
She visited the homes of 26 families with babies during bi-monthly, 2-hour visits. She wrote detailed notes on the infants’ interactions with their mothers and in the presence of others, in addition to mothers’ responses to her questions about infant care.
The notes were then expanded and summarized into reports and checked for accuracy by an interpreter that accompanied her during the visits.
As reported by Bretherton (2013), “… secure-attached infants cried little and engaged in exploration when their mother was present, while insecure-attached infants were frequently fussy even with mother in the same room” (p. 461).
9. Observing Subliminal Messaging and Popcorn Sales Correlation
The idea that messages presented below the threshold of conscious awareness could affect behavior has been around for decades. It all began with a 1957 study that claimed subliminal messages in a movie increased popcorn sales by nearly 60%.
As it turns out, the research was never conducted.
However, if a person wanted to actually conduct this kind of research it could be done. First, messages that suggested eating popcorn would have to be spliced into a film; another version f the film would not contain the messages.
Both films would be shown simultaneously at the same theatre. As customers purchased tickets, they would be randomly assigned to watch one of the two versions. A trained observer would sit nearby the concession stand and keep track of how many customers viewing each version purchased popcorn during and after the film finished. This is the naturalistic observation component.
A simple comparison of popcorn sales between each film would test the hypothesis and settle the issue forever.
10. Time and Motion Studies to Increase Productivity
A time and motion study is a method for making work processes more efficient. Being more efficient means higher profits.
First, workers are observed and recorded. Then, some steps to complete a task may be eliminated while ways to shorten the time it takes to complete other steps are identified.
Frank and Lillian Gilbreth were early pioneers in this type of naturalistic observation study.
Frank owned a construction company and Lilian was a psychologist. They observed Frank’s bricklayers and reduced the number of movements needed to carry out their work from 18 to 4.
From there they started a consulting business, helping manufacturers improve efficiency during the industrial revolution. After Frank’s early passing at the age of 54, Lillian went on to become the first female member of the Society for Industrial Engineers and the only psychologist to appear on a postage stamp (in 1884).
Types of Naturalistic Observation
There are many versions of naturalistic observation. Below are two common onese:
- Participant/Non-participant refers to whether the person collecting the data is also participating in the activity being studied or is solely observing from the sidelines.
Understanding the customs of an exotic culture by participating in some of the rituals may provide some very valuable insights from a personal perspective. Or, the researcher may prefer to observe the cultural practices from a distance, which can also provide a lot of valuable information.
- Covert/Overt observation refers to whether the people being observed are aware that they are under study. Since people may change their behavior if they know they are being watched, a researcher may choose to not inform the people that they are under study. Overt observation means that the people under study are fully aware of the researcher’s presence.
As with all scientific studies in the social sciences conducted by university scientists, each study must be evaluated by an Institutional Review Board (IRB) before it can begin. The IRB scrutinizes the methods for ethical issues and may require researchers to make adjustments to the procedures before being approved.
Benefits of Naturalistic Observation
Sometimes people will act differently in a laboratory setting because they know they are being observed. They may try to act more polite or portray themselves in a favorable light.
In a naturalistic observation study, participants are often unaware they are being observed, so they do not try to alter their behavior.
In animal studies, conducting research in the field may be the only way to study the phenomenon of interest, as one cannot construct a rainforest or similar habitat in the lab.
Naturalistic observation is a great way to collect data on a phenomenon as it exists in its natural environment. If studying people, there are aspects of behavior that cannot be observed in a laboratory setting, and people often change their behavior if they know a social scientist is watching them.
If studying animals, it is just simply not possible to recreate an entire habitat in a research lab. So, scientists must venture into the wild and observe animals on their own turf. This will provide insights into their behavior that cannot be obtained in a laboratory.
We can even use naturalistic observation to track consumer behavior and make predictions regarding corporate sales or agricultural futures. That information can lead to huge profits.
Naturalistic observation is an incredibly valuable research tool that has application in science and business.
Ainsworth, M. D. S. (1967). Infancy in Uganda . Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Bretherton, I. (2013). Revisiting Mary Ainsworth’s conceptualization and assessments of maternal sensitivity-insensitivity. Attachment & Human Development, 15 (5–6), 460–484. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14616734.2013.835128
d’Apice, K., Latham, R., & Stumm, S. (2019). A naturalistic home observational approach to children’s language, cognition, and behavior. Developmental Psychology, 55 (7),1414-1427. https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0000733
Gulledge, A. K., Gulledge, M. H., & Stahmannn, R. F. (2003). Romantic physical affection types and relationship satisfaction. The American Journal of Family Therapy , 31 (4), 233-242.
Lenhart, A., & Duggan, M. (2014). Couples, the internet, and social media: How American couples use digital technology to manage life, logistics, and emotional intimacy within their relationships. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from https://www.pewinternet.org/2014/02/11/couples-the-internet-and-social-media/
Quiroz, S., Mickelson, K. (2021). Are online behaviors damaging our in-person connections? Passive versus active social media use on romantic relationships. Cyberpsychology: Journal of Psychosocial Research on Cyberspace, 15 (1). https://doi.org/10.5817/CP2021-1-1
Ulvi, O., Karamehic-Muratovic, A., Baghbanzadeh, M., Bashir, A., Smith, J., & Haque, U. (2022). Social Media Use and Mental Health: A Global Analysis. https://doi.org/10.3390/epidemiologia3010002
Wagner, S. A., Mattson, R. E., Davila, J., Johnson, M. D., & Cameron, N. M. (2020). Touch me just enough: The intersection of adult attachment, intimate touch, and marital satisfaction. Journal of Social and Personal Relationships , 37(6), 1945-1967. https://doi.org/10.1177/0265407520910791
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- Natural Experiment
Whilst oftentimes people tend to think of experiments occurring in laboratories and controlled settings, psychologists also consider real-world environments as opportunities to investigate phenomena. Behaviour changes depending on the setting, and investigating research areas in their natural settings can amplify the validity of the findings. Natural experiments offer researchers the opportunity to investigate human behaviour in everyday life.
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Which of the following experiments does not involve the researcher manipulating the independent variable?
True or false: Similar to lab experiments, natural experiments are conducted in controlled settings.
True or false: Confounding/ extraneous variables can be an issue in natural experiments.
After Hurricane Katrina, researchers wanted to investigate how the natural disaster affected mental health. What type of experiment is likely to be conducted?
Sampling bias can be an issue in natural experiments; this can influence the research's...
True or false: Ethical issues can be a potential concern for natural experiments.
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Jump to a key chapter
- We are going to explore natural experiments used in psychological research.
- We will start by highlighting the natural experiment definition.
- We will then explore how natural experiments are used in psychology and cover natural experiment examples of research to demonstrate to help illustrate our points.
- Moving on, we will cover natural and field experiments to highlight the differences between the two types of investigations.
- And to finish, we will explore the natural experiment's advantages and disadvantages.
Natural Experiment Defintion
Natural experiments are essentially experiments that investigate naturally occurring phenomena. The natural experiment definition is a research procedure that occurs in the participant's natural setting that requires no manipulation by the researcher.
In experiments, changes in the independent variable (IV) are observed to identify if these changes affect the dependent variable (DV). However, in natural experiments, the researcher does not manipulate the IV. Instead, they observe the natural changes that occur.
Some examples of naturally occurring IVs are sex at birth, whether people have experienced a natural disaster, experienced a traumatic experience, or been diagnosed with a specific illness.
These examples show that it's next to impossible for the researcher to manipulate these.
Natural Experiment: Psychology
Why may researchers choose to use a natural experiment? As we have just discussed, sometimes researchers can't manipulate the IV. But, they may still wish to see how changes in the IV affect the DV, so use a natural experiment.
Sometimes a researcher can manipulate the IV, but it may be unethical or impractical to do so, so they conduct a natural experiment.
In natural experiments, the researcher can see how changes in the IV affect a DV, but unlike in lab experiments, the researcher has to identify how the IV is changing. In contrast, lab experiments pre-determine how the IV will be manipulated.
Natural Experiment: Examples
Natural experiments often take place in real-world settings. An example can be seen in examining the effect of female and male performance in an office environment and if gender plays a role in the retention of customers. Other examples include examining behaviours in schools, and the effect age has on behaviour.
Let's look at a hypothetical study that uses a natural experiment research method.
A research team was interested in investigating attitudes towards the community after experiencing a natural disaster.
The study collected data using interviews. The IV was naturally occurring as the researcher did not manipulate the IV; instead, they recruited participants who had recently experienced a natural disaster.
Natural Experiment vs Field Experiment
The table below summarises the key similarities and differences between natural experiments vs field experiments.
Natural Experiment: Advantages and Disadvantages
In the following section will present the natural experiment's advantages and disadvantages. We will discuss the new research possibilities, causal conclusions, rare opportunities, pre-existing sampling bias and ethical issues.
New Research Opportunities
Natural experiments provide opportunities for research that can't be done for ethical and practical reasons.
For example, it is impossible to manipulate a natural disaster or maternal deprivation on participants.
So, natural experiments are the only ethical way for researchers to investigate the causal relationship of the above topics. Thus, natural experiments open up practical research opportunities to study conditions that cannot be manipulated.
High Ecological Validity
Natural experiments have high ecological validity because natural experiments study real-world problems that occur naturally in real-life settings.
When research is found to use and apply real-life settings and techniques, it is considered to have high mundane realism.
And the advantage of this is that the results are more likely applicable and generalisable to real-life situations.
Rare Opportunities
There are scarce opportunities for researchers to conduct a natural experiment. Most natural events are ‘one-off’ situations. Because natural events are unique, the results have limited generalisability to similar situations.
In addition, it is next to impossible for researchers to replicate natural experiments; therefore, it is difficult to establish the reliability of findings.
Pre-Existing Sampling Bias
In natural experiments, pre-existing sampling bias can be a problem. In natural experiments, researchers cannot randomly assign participants to different conditions because naturally occurring events create them. Therefore, in natural experiments, participant differences may act as confounding variables .
As a result, sample bias in natural experiments can lead to low internal validity and generalisability of the research.
Ethical Issues
Although natural experiments are considered the only ethically acceptable method for studying conditions that can't be manipulated, ethical issues may still arise. Because natural experiments are often conducted after traumatic events, interviewing or observing people after the event could cause psychological harm to participants.
Researchers should prepare for potential ethical issues, such as psychological harm, usually dealt with by offering therapy. However, this can be pretty costly. And the ethical issue may lead participants to drop out of the research, which can also affect the quality of the research.
Natural Experiment - Key takeaways
The natural experiment definition is a research procedure that occurs in the participant's natural setting that requires no manipulation of the researcher.
The advantages of natural experiments are that they provide opportunities for research that researchers cannot do for ethical or practical reasons and have high ecological validity.
The disadvantages of natural experiments are reliability issues, pre-existing sample bias, and ethical issues, such as conducting a study after traumatic events may cause psychological distress.
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Frequently Asked Questions about Natural Experiment
What is a natural experiment?
The natural experiment definition is a research procedure that occurs in the participant's natural setting that requires no manipulation of the researcher.
What is an example of natural experiment?
Beckett (2006) investigated the effects of deprivation on children’s IQ at age 11. They compared 128 Romanian children who UK families had adopted at various ages and 50 UK children who had been adopted before six months. They found that Romanian children who had been adopted before six months of age had similar IQs to the UK children; however, Romanian children adopted after six months of age had much worse scores.
What are the characteristics of a natural experiment?
The characteristics of natural experiments are that they are carried out in a natural setting and the IV is not manipulated in this type of experiment.
What are the advantages and disadvantages of natural experiments?
And the disadvantages of natural experiments are reliability issues, pre-existing sample bias, and ethical issues, such as conducting a study after traumatic events may cause psychological distress.
What are natural experiments in research?
Natural experiments in psychology research are often used when manipulating a variable is unethical or impractical.
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Experimental Method In Psychology
Saul McLeod, PhD
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Saul McLeod, PhD., is a qualified psychology teacher with over 18 years of experience in further and higher education. He has been published in peer-reviewed journals, including the Journal of Clinical Psychology.
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Olivia Guy-Evans is a writer and associate editor for Simply Psychology. She has previously worked in healthcare and educational sectors.
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The experimental method involves the manipulation of variables to establish cause-and-effect relationships. The key features are controlled methods and the random allocation of participants into controlled and experimental groups .
What is an Experiment?
An experiment is an investigation in which a hypothesis is scientifically tested. An independent variable (the cause) is manipulated in an experiment, and the dependent variable (the effect) is measured; any extraneous variables are controlled.
An advantage is that experiments should be objective. The researcher’s views and opinions should not affect a study’s results. This is good as it makes the data more valid and less biased.
There are three types of experiments you need to know:
1. Lab Experiment
A laboratory experiment in psychology is a research method in which the experimenter manipulates one or more independent variables and measures the effects on the dependent variable under controlled conditions.
A laboratory experiment is conducted under highly controlled conditions (not necessarily a laboratory) where accurate measurements are possible.
The researcher uses a standardized procedure to determine where the experiment will take place, at what time, with which participants, and in what circumstances.
Participants are randomly allocated to each independent variable group.
Examples are Milgram’s experiment on obedience and Loftus and Palmer’s car crash study .
- Strength : It is easier to replicate (i.e., copy) a laboratory experiment. This is because a standardized procedure is used.
- Strength : They allow for precise control of extraneous and independent variables. This allows a cause-and-effect relationship to be established.
- Limitation : The artificiality of the setting may produce unnatural behavior that does not reflect real life, i.e., low ecological validity. This means it would not be possible to generalize the findings to a real-life setting.
- Limitation : Demand characteristics or experimenter effects may bias the results and become confounding variables .
2. Field Experiment
A field experiment is a research method in psychology that takes place in a natural, real-world setting. It is similar to a laboratory experiment in that the experimenter manipulates one or more independent variables and measures the effects on the dependent variable.
However, in a field experiment, the participants are unaware they are being studied, and the experimenter has less control over the extraneous variables .
Field experiments are often used to study social phenomena, such as altruism, obedience, and persuasion. They are also used to test the effectiveness of interventions in real-world settings, such as educational programs and public health campaigns.
An example is Holfing’s hospital study on obedience .
- Strength : behavior in a field experiment is more likely to reflect real life because of its natural setting, i.e., higher ecological validity than a lab experiment.
- Strength : Demand characteristics are less likely to affect the results, as participants may not know they are being studied. This occurs when the study is covert.
- Limitation : There is less control over extraneous variables that might bias the results. This makes it difficult for another researcher to replicate the study in exactly the same way.
3. Natural Experiment
A natural experiment in psychology is a research method in which the experimenter observes the effects of a naturally occurring event or situation on the dependent variable without manipulating any variables.
Natural experiments are conducted in the day (i.e., real life) environment of the participants, but here, the experimenter has no control over the independent variable as it occurs naturally in real life.
Natural experiments are often used to study psychological phenomena that would be difficult or unethical to study in a laboratory setting, such as the effects of natural disasters, policy changes, or social movements.
For example, Hodges and Tizard’s attachment research (1989) compared the long-term development of children who have been adopted, fostered, or returned to their mothers with a control group of children who had spent all their lives in their biological families.
Here is a fictional example of a natural experiment in psychology:
Researchers might compare academic achievement rates among students born before and after a major policy change that increased funding for education.
In this case, the independent variable is the timing of the policy change, and the dependent variable is academic achievement. The researchers would not be able to manipulate the independent variable, but they could observe its effects on the dependent variable.
- Strength : behavior in a natural experiment is more likely to reflect real life because of its natural setting, i.e., very high ecological validity.
- Strength : Demand characteristics are less likely to affect the results, as participants may not know they are being studied.
- Strength : It can be used in situations in which it would be ethically unacceptable to manipulate the independent variable, e.g., researching stress .
- Limitation : They may be more expensive and time-consuming than lab experiments.
- Limitation : There is no control over extraneous variables that might bias the results. This makes it difficult for another researcher to replicate the study in exactly the same way.
Key Terminology
Ecological validity.
The degree to which an investigation represents real-life experiences.
Experimenter effects
These are the ways that the experimenter can accidentally influence the participant through their appearance or behavior.
Demand characteristics
The clues in an experiment lead the participants to think they know what the researcher is looking for (e.g., the experimenter’s body language).
Independent variable (IV)
The variable the experimenter manipulates (i.e., changes) is assumed to have a direct effect on the dependent variable.
Dependent variable (DV)
Variable the experimenter measures. This is the outcome (i.e., the result) of a study.
Extraneous variables (EV)
All variables which are not independent variables but could affect the results (DV) of the experiment. EVs should be controlled where possible.
Confounding variables
Variable(s) that have affected the results (DV), apart from the IV. A confounding variable could be an extraneous variable that has not been controlled.
Random Allocation
Randomly allocating participants to independent variable conditions means that all participants should have an equal chance of participating in each condition.
The principle of random allocation is to avoid bias in how the experiment is carried out and limit the effects of participant variables.
Order effects
Changes in participants’ performance due to their repeating the same or similar test more than once. Examples of order effects include:
(i) practice effect: an improvement in performance on a task due to repetition, for example, because of familiarity with the task;
(ii) fatigue effect: a decrease in performance of a task due to repetition, for example, because of boredom or tiredness.
Applied Causal Analysis (with R)
6.7 natural experiments: examples.
- “This proposition is tested using Russian artillery fire in Chechnya (2000 to 2005) to estimate indiscriminate violence’s effect on subsequent patterns of insurgent attacks across matched pairs of similar shelled and nonshelled villages.”
- The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections (Gomez, Hansford, and Krause 2007 )
- Natural Disaster and Democratic Legitimacy: The Public Opinion Consequences of Chile’s 2010 Earthquake and Tsunami (Carlin, Love, and Zechmeister 2014 )
- …institutional reforms (essentially the abolition of the ancien règime) brought by the French in Germany…were akin to an exogenous change in institutions unrelated to the underlying economic potential of the areas reformed…compare economic performance of areas reformed to those not reformed before and after the Revolutionary period to examine the impact of the reforms.
- Natural Experiments Based on Geography (Keele and Titiunik 2016 , Reproduction files )
- When Natural Experiments Are Neither Natural nor Experiments (Sekhon and Titiunik 2012 )
Acemoglu, Daron, Davide Cantoni, Simon Johnson, and James A Robinson. 2007. “From Ancien Règime to Capitalism: The French Revolution as a Natural Experiment.”
Carlin, Ryan E, Gregory J Love, and Elizabeth J Zechmeister. 2014. “Natural Disaster and Democratic Legitimacy: The Public Opinion Consequences of Chile’s 2010 Earthquake and Tsunami.” Polit. Res. Q. 67 (1): 3–15.
Gomez, Brad T, Thomas G Hansford, and George A Krause. 2007. “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections.” J. Polit. 69 (3): 649–63.
Keele, Luke, and Rocı́o Titiunik. 2016. “Natural Experiments Based on Geography.” Political Science Research and Methods 4 (1): 65–95.
Lyall, Jason. 2009. “Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechnya.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (3): 331–62.
Sekhon, Jasjeet S, and Rocı́o Titiunik. 2012. “When Natural Experiments Are Neither Natural nor Experiments.” Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 106 (1): 35–57.
Quickonomics
Natural Experiment
### Definition of Natural Experiment
A natural experiment refers to an empirical or observational study in which the conditions for the research are determined by nature or by other factors outside the control of the investigators. Unlike controlled experiments where researchers manipulate variables to determine cause and effect, natural experiments take advantage of real-world situations where a natural division or variation occurs, allowing for the observation of its impact on specific outcomes. These types of experiments are particularly valuable in fields like economics, sociology, and epidemiology, where ethical or practical considerations make controlled experiments difficult to carry out.
### Example
Consider a situation where a certain city introduces a significant public transportation subsidy, effectively reducing the cost of using public transit, while a neighboring city does not. Over time, researchers might observe changes in traffic congestion, air quality, and public transit usage between the two cities. This scenario can be viewed as a natural experiment because the subsidy’s implementation creates a naturally occurring division, facilitating the study of its effects on urban transportation patterns without needing a controlled, experimental design.
### Why Natural Experiments Matter
Natural experiments are crucial for several reasons. They provide a unique opportunity to study the effects of variables that cannot be ethically or practically manipulated by researchers. By observing naturally occurring variations, scientists and policymakers can infer causal relationships in complex, real-world settings. This ability to glean insights from uncontrolled environments helps bridge the gap between theory and practice, offering evidence that can inform public policy, economic strategies, and social interventions. Furthermore, because they rely on real-world occurrences, the findings from natural experiments often have a high degree of external validity, meaning they can be generalized to broader contexts.
### Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
#### How do natural experiments differ from randomized controlled trials (RCTs)?
Natural experiments differ from RCTs in that the researcher has no control over the assignment of the treatment or intervention. In RCTs, subjects are randomly assigned to either the treatment or control group to ensure that any differences observed are due to the treatment itself and not to pre-existing conditions. In contrast, natural experiments rely on external circumstances to create an “experimental” and a “control” group, which may lead to challenges in isolating the treatment effect from other confounding factors.
#### What are the limitations of natural experiments?
One of the key limitations of natural experiments is the potential for confounding variables that researchers cannot control. These variables may influence the outcome of the experiment, making it difficult to establish causality with the same certainty as in controlled experiments. Additionally, since natural experiments are observational, they can be susceptible to selection bias, where the characteristics of the groups being compared differ in significant ways other than the treatment of interest.
#### Can natural experiments provide conclusive evidence on causality?
While natural experiments can provide valuable insights and suggest causal relationships, they may not offer conclusive evidence of causality. The lack of control over assignment and potential confounding factors means that results should be interpreted with caution. However, when designed and analyzed correctly, and ideally combined with other sources of evidence, natural experiments can contribute significantly to our understanding of causal mechanisms in real-world settings.
#### How are natural experiments identified and analyzed?
Identifying natural experiments often involves recognizing opportunities where natural or policy-related variations mimic the conditions of a controlled experiment. This can include changes in laws, technological advancements, or natural disasters. Analysis typically requires sophisticated statistical methods to account for potential confounding variables and to isolate the effect of the treatment or intervention. Techniques such as difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity designs, and instrumental variable analysis are commonly used to analyze data from natural experiments.
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6. Natural Experiments and Quasi-Experiments
Library resources, foundations of quantitative research in political science, natural experiments and quasi-experiments.
Natural Experiments
You have just learned that it is hard to infer causality from an observational study. With observational studies, it is usually much harder to control for confounding variables. However, researchers have come up with ways to control for confounding variables even when treatment assignment is not under the control of the researcher. One example of this is a research design called the natural experiment.
We have a natural experiment when variation in the independent variable is randomly assigned, but not by the researcher. One example of a natural experiment was conducted in Brazil: researchers wanted to know if voters punish politicians when they discover that politicians are involved in corruption.
The researchers noticed that the federal government of Brazil conducted audits to find out whether or not the mayors of local towns are involved in corruption. The federal government did not have the capacity to conduct such audits in every single town, so they had to choose a group of towns to be audited.
To avoid suspicion that the audits were used to persecute opponents, the government decided that the group of towns to be audited would be randomly selected. This gave researchers an opportunity to test the following question: what happens to the reelection chances of mayors who get audited, when compared to mayors who do not get audited?
They found that, when compared to mayors who do not get audited, honest mayors who were audited and came clean were more likely to be reelected. By contrast, corrupt mayors who were audited and got caught were less likely to be reelected than mayors who were not audited. We know that these outcomes were caused by the audits because audits were randomly assigned. Because of random assignment, the researchers were able to rule out confounding variables: towns that were audited are similar, on average, to towns that were not audited.
When a researcher notices that variation in an independent variable is random, and uses this random assignment to draw causal inference, we see an example of a natural experiment. The researchers exploited the fact that the Brazilian government randomly assigned variation in which towns get audited--the independent variable of interest.
Quasi-Experiments
A quasi-experiment is an experiment that looks like a true, randomized experiment, but lacks random assignment. One example of a quasi-experiment is when treatment is not randomly assigned, but we have reasons to believe that the treatment group is similar to the control group.
For example, think about a high school that wants to measure the impact of the Covid pandemic on student performance. At this school, the class of 2019 suffered no impact from the pandemic, the class of 2020 suffered some impact, and the class of 2021 suffered a lot of impact. So long as we believe that students in the classes of 19, 20 and 21 are similar to each other , a comparison between these three classes should reveal something about the impact of the pandemic on student performance.
This research design has its flaws because assignment to treatment is not random. For example, the senior year of the class of 2021 had the added stress of a hectic election campaign and its violent aftermath. These additional stressors are potential confounds in this research design. But because we cannot randomly assign the impact of the pandemic on students' lives, a research design that compares across graduating classes may be as good as it gets.
- Ferraz, Claudio, and Frederico Finan. 2008. “Exposing Corrupt Politicians: The Effects of Brazil’s Publicly Released Audits on Electoral Outcomes.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 123 (2): 703–45. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25098913 Links to an external site.
- Leatherdale, Scott T. 2019. “Natural Experiment Methodology for Research: A Review of How Different Methods Can Support Real-World Research.” International Journal of Social Research Methodology 22 (1): 19–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/13645579.2018.1488449 Links to an external site. .
- "Quasi-experimental Design", in Trochim, William M. K., and James P. Donnelly. 2006. The Research Methods Knowledge Base . 3rd edition. Mason, Ohio: Atomic Dog. https://conjointly.com/kb/quasi-experimental-design/ Links to an external site.
IMAGES
COMMENTS
Jun 30, 2015 · Natural experiments can provide answers to these kind of questions. Natural experiments arise when comparable individuals or groups of people are sorted by “nature” into something like a control and treatment group. They differ from RCTs because they are not consciously designed by a researcher. An example of an ongoing natural experiment ...
In another example, a well-known natural experiment in Helena, Montana, smoking was banned from all public places for a six-month period. Investigators later reported a 60-percent drop in heart attacks for the study area during the time the ban was in effect. Natural experiments as quasi experiments
Jan 3, 2024 · Naturalistic observation is a data collection method that involves observing behavior as it occurs in a natural environment. It is a common methodology in psychology and anthropology. The main idea is to see how people or animals act in their natural habitat, as opposed to a research laboratory.
This study was an example of a natural experiment, called a case-crossover experiment, where the exposure is removed for a time and then returned. The study also noted its own weaknesses which potentially suggest that the inability to control variables in natural experiments can impede investigators from drawing firm conclusions.' [12]
Natural Experiment: Examples. Natural experiments often take place in real-world settings. An example can be seen in examining the effect of female and male performance in an office environment and if gender plays a role in the retention of customers. Other examples include examining behaviours in schools, and the effect age has on behaviour.
Sep 25, 2023 · For example, Hodges and Tizard’s attachment research (1989) compared the long-term development of children who have been adopted, fostered, or returned to their mothers with a control group of children who had spent all their lives in their biological families. Here is a fictional example of a natural experiment in psychology:
Natural Disaster and Democratic Legitimacy: The Public Opinion Consequences of Chile’s 2010 Earthquake and Tsunami (Carlin, Love, and Zechmeister 2014) From Ancien Règime to Capitalism: The French Revolution as a Natural Experiment (Acemoglu et al. 2007 )
Apr 29, 2024 · Published Apr 29, 2024### Definition of Natural Experiment A natural experiment refers to an empirical or observational study in which the conditions for the research are determined by nature or by other factors outside the control of the investigators. Unlike controlled experiments where researchers manipulate variables to determine cause and […]
Jul 19, 2018 · The definition of natural experiment with examples. Consumer Choice Consumer choices such as subscriptions to media content. In the 1980s and early 1990s, before internet use was common, there was a sharp difference in media exposure based on cable TV subscriptions that were commonly sold in packages of channels.
One example of this is a research design called the natural experiment. We have a natural experiment when variation in the independent variable is randomly assigned, but not by the researcher. One example of a natural experiment was conducted in Brazil: researchers wanted to know if voters punish politicians when they discover that politicians ...